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A TAI which kills all humans might also doom itself
A TAI which kills all humans, without first ensuring that it is capable of doing everything required for its supply chain, takes a risk of destroying…
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Jeffrey Heninger
2
How bad a future do ML researchers expect?
Originally published 8 March 2023 In our survey last year, we asked publishing machine learning researchers how they would divide probability over the…
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Katja Grace
The Broader Fossil Fuel Community
AI Safety researchers and AI Capabilities researchers are part of the same community because they both believe that the long-term goal of humanity…
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Jeffrey Heninger
1
April 2023
AI Impacts Quarterly Newsletter, Jan-Mar 2023
Updates, research, and fundraising
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Harlan Stewart
What we’ve learned so far from our technological temptations project
At AI Impacts, we’ve been looking into how people, institutions, and society approach novel, powerful technologies. One part of this is our…
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Rick Korzekwa
Superintelligence Is Not Omniscience
Chaos theory allows us to rigorously show that there are ceilings on our abilities to make some prediction. This post introduces an investigation which…
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Jeffrey Heninger
A policy guaranteed to increase AI timelines
The number of years until the creation of powerful AI is a major input to our thinking about risk from AI and which approaches are most promising for…
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Rick Korzekwa
March 2023
You Can't Predict a Game of Pinball
The uncertainty in the location of the pinball grows by a factor of about 5 every time the ball collides with one of the disks. After 12 bounces, an…
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Jeffrey Heninger
How popular is ChatGPT? Part 2: slower growth than Pokémon GO
A major theme in reporting on ChatGPT is the rapid growth of its user base. A commonly stated claim is that it broke records, with over 1 million users…
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Rick Korzekwa
Scoring forecasts from the 2016 “Expert Survey on Progress in AI”
Patrick Levermore, 1 March 2023 Summary This document looks at the predictions made by AI experts in The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI, analyses…
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Patrick Levermore
February 2023
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