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The Broader Fossil Fuel Community
AI Safety researchers and AI Capabilities researchers are part of the same community because they both believe that the long-term goal of humanity…
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Jeffrey Heninger
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What we’ve learned so far from our technological temptations project
At AI Impacts, we’ve been looking into how people, institutions, and society approach novel, powerful technologies. One part of this is our…
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Rick Korzekwa
Superintelligence Is Not Omniscience
Chaos theory allows us to rigorously show that there are ceilings on our abilities to make some prediction. This post introduces an investigation which…
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Jeffrey Heninger
A policy guaranteed to increase AI timelines
The number of years until the creation of powerful AI is a major input to our thinking about risk from AI and which approaches are most promising for…
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Rick Korzekwa
You Can't Predict a Game of Pinball
The uncertainty in the location of the pinball grows by a factor of about 5 every time the ball collides with one of the disks. After 12 bounces, an…
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Jeffrey Heninger
How popular is ChatGPT? Part 2: slower growth than Pokémon GO
A major theme in reporting on ChatGPT is the rapid growth of its user base. A commonly stated claim is that it broke records, with over 1 million users…
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Rick Korzekwa
Scoring forecasts from the 2016 “Expert Survey on Progress in AI”
Patrick Levermore, 1 March 2023 Summary This document looks at the predictions made by AI experts in The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI, analyses…
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Patrick Levermore
AI Impacts blog
AI Impacts blog
A blog from AI Impacts about the future of artificial intelligence
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