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This is very well put together, and differentiates some subtle effects from each other. Catastrophic tools might have mentioned synthetic biology more explicitly. I also think people would find the Agents argument more compelling with a better social dilemma explanation (Racing to the Precipice is good) and a different example, maybe a human environmental collapse. I don't really think any of these risks are existential, but every one could bring harms of different kinds, maybe all at once.

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