Scoring forecasts from the 2016 “Expert Survey on Progress in AI”
blog.aiimpacts.org
Patrick Levermore, 1 March 2023 Summary This document looks at the predictions made by AI experts in The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI, analyses the predictions on ‘Narrow tasks’, and gives a Brier score to the median of the experts’ predictions.
Scoring forecasts from the 2016 “Expert Survey on Progress in AI”
Scoring forecasts from the 2016 “Expert…
Scoring forecasts from the 2016 “Expert Survey on Progress in AI”
Patrick Levermore, 1 March 2023 Summary This document looks at the predictions made by AI experts in The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI, analyses the predictions on ‘Narrow tasks’, and gives a Brier score to the median of the experts’ predictions.